Abstract
Abstract Climate change has implications for water resources by increasing temperature, shifting precipitation patterns and altering the timing of snowfall and glacier melt, leading to shifts in the seasonality of river flows. Here, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) and their multi-model mean to estimate the potential impact of climate change on water balance components in sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) scenarios. Warming of above 6 °C relative to baseline (1974–2004) is projected for the UIB by the end of the century (2070–2100), but the spread of annual precipitation projections among GCMs is large (+16 to −28%), and even larger for seasonal precipitation (+91 to −48%). Compared to the baseline, an increase in summer precipitation (RCP8.5: +36.7%) and a decrease in winter precipitation were projected (RCP8.5: −16.9%), with an increase in average annual water yield from the nival–glacial regime and river flow peaking 1 month earlier. We conclude that predicted warming during winter and spring could substantially affect the seasonal river flows, with important implications for water supplies.
Highlights
The Upper Indus Basin (UIB), situated in the Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) region, supplies water to one of the largest irrigation systems in the world, meaning that climate change threatens the water, food and hydro-energy security of 200 million people through interruption of water resources (Immerzeel et al 2010; Amin et al 2018; Scott et al 2019)
The Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) and their multi-model mean to estimate the potential impact of climate change on water balance components in sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) scenarios
In the Upper Indus River Basin (UIRB), GCM1 and GCM2 projected an increase in the average annual precipitation (þ6 to þ9.1% and þ8.1 to þ12.2%), while GCM3, GCM4 and GCM5 projected a decrease in the near future and end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
Summary
The Upper Indus Basin (UIB), situated in the Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) region, supplies water to one of the largest irrigation systems in the world, meaning that climate change threatens the water, food and hydro-energy security of 200 million people through interruption of water resources (Immerzeel et al 2010; Amin et al 2018; Scott et al 2019). Any climate change-driven alteration to the intensity, spatial extent or timing of the monsoon, will have significant impacts on people in the region. It is crucial to be able to predict future changes in climate patterns and their impact on river flows of the Indus River at a regional level for sustainable water resource management (Ali et al 2009; Clifton et al 2018). The amount of precipitation and the timing of river flows in the region are a function of two climatic systems, the Indian monsoon system and
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