Abstract
Abstract. The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers. The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being done to find out the best techniques to describe complex fresh-brackish-saline groundwater dynamic systems. In this paper, we describe a methodology consisting of high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (EM) measurements used in a 3-D variable-density transient groundwater model for a coastal area in the Netherlands. We used the airborne EM measurements in combination with borehole-logging data, electrical conductivity cone penetration tests and groundwater samples to create a 3-D fresh-brackish-saline groundwater distribution of the study area. The EM measurements proved to be an improvement compared to older techniques and provided quality input for the model. With the help of the built 3-D variable-density groundwater model, we removed the remaining inaccuracies of the 3-D chloride field and predicted the effects of three climate scenarios on the groundwater and surface water system. Results showed significant changes in the groundwater system, and gave direction for future water policy. Future research should provide more insight in the improvement of data collection for fresh-brackish-saline groundwater systems as it is of high importance to further improve the quality of the model.
Highlights
Fresh water is an essential resource for all types of human activities
The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers
The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being done to find out the best techniques to describe complex fresh-brackish-saline groundwater dynamic systems
Summary
Fresh water is an essential resource for all types of human activities. Worldwide, agriculture is the sector consuming about 70 % of all available fresh water (UNESCOPRESS, 14 March 2012). To ensure agricultural sustainability and fresh water supply of a coastal area, both policy makers and farmers need to know the future availability of fresh groundwater and the dynamics of saline groundwater in the deep and shallow subsurface. Sengpiel and Meiser (1981) or Fitterman and Deszcz-Pan (1998) in fresh-brackish-saline groundwater environments since the 1980s It is within this framework of the Interreg IV-B project CLIWAT (www.cliwat.eu, a transnational project in the North Sea region) that Deltares, TNO, Province of Fryslan, Wetterskip of Fryslan (all the Netherlands), Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR, Germany), and Aarhus Geophysics (Denmark) worked together to make these AEM methods suitable and accessible for mapping fresh groundwater resources over large areas, and to use this AEM data in numerical modelling tools for the prediction of climate change effects on groundwater systems in northern Fryslan. The outcome of the model was processed with the objective that policy makers could directly employ it in the making of water management plans
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