Modelling climate change effects in southern Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACT Figueiredo, S.A., 2013. Modeling climate change effects in southern Brazil. Along the coast of Rio Grande do Sul state, southern Brazil, differences on coastal configuration are generally accompanied by changes in substrate slope, where steeper gradients characterize coastal projections and gentle gradients the coastal embayments. This study focus on coastal response to climate change effects at two sectors along RS coast: Cassino embayment and Conceicao lighthouse projection. The former has been under very high rates of progradation, on the order of at least 3 m/yr at geological and historical time scales. Whereas Conceicao region has been undergoing rates of recession reaching −3.6 m/yr. In order to forecast coastal response to the effects of climate change at these sites over several time horizons (2030–2070–2100), model simulations using the DRanSTM (Dilating Random Shoreface Translation Model) were performed. Simulation results have demonstrated that Cassino sector is particularly vulnerable...