Modelling Climate Change and Population Growth on GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector in the Toronto-Niagra Region, Canada

Abstract

Climate change will affect the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by affecting energy consumption. Population growth, on the other hand, will increase GHG emissions in the absence of new technologies or an emissions reduction policy. Most of the recent increase of GHG emissions can be attributed to the anthropogenic activities associated with the consumption of energy. It is recognized that variations in temperature will affect energy consumption and hence GHG emissions associated with this behavior. The energy demand for space heating in winter decreases when the air temperature rises; while the demand for air conditioning and refrigeration increases during the summer. This study uses the MARKAL model to evaluate the impacts on energy demand and the associated GHG emissions caused by variations of temperature and population in the Toronto-Niagara Region (TNR) from 1998 to 2032. One Business as Usual (BAU) case and three scenarios were developed and analyzed. The BAU case models the energy system and GHG emissions based on extrapolations from the current level of social and economic development. The first scenario reflects variations of GHG emissions level in response to a mean temperature change. The second scenario incorporates population growth into the first scenario. The third Scenario combines population growth with changes in the summer maximum temperature and the winter minimum temperature rather than mean temperature.