Abstract
The weather during grape production affects wine quality. Changes in the weather in the Chablis region of France and in the quality of Chablis wines (vintage scores) from 1963 to 2018 were analysed. Chablis wine quality improved over this period, with no Poor vintages after 1991. Summer temperature and sunshine duration both increased progressively between 1963 to 2018 with fewer frost days but no linear change detected in precipitation. Chablis vintage score was modelled as a function of mean temperature from April to September (curvilinear relation, maximum score at 16–17 °C), mean minimum temperature in September (an index of cool nights; negative relation), and total rainfall from June to September (negative relation). This simple three-factor model distinguished between Poor and higher-quality Chablis vintages well, but less so between Good and Excellent vintages. Application of the model to different climate change scenarios (assuming current viticultural and oenological practices) suggests that vintage scores will decline (slightly to substantially, dependent upon emissions scenario) by the 2041 to 2070 period. This reduction in quality would, however, be minimised if the warming of cool nights is less than currently forecast. The Chablis vintage score model may help identify sites with suitable climates for premium white wine from Chardonnay grapevines in emerging cool climate viticulture regions as well as aiding Chablis producers mitigate the effects of climate change.
Highlights
Considerable research has been carried out on the link between weather and wine quality
A common finding is that vintage quality is related to growing season temperature and rainfall in the one to two months before harvest (Ashenfelter and Byron, 1995; Grifoni et al, 2006; Ashenfelter, 2010; Lorenzo et al, 2013; Outreville, 2018), though differences exist amongst regions and cultivars (Suter et al, 2021)
Chablis wine quality has improved during the study period, with no Poor vintages since 1991 (Figure 2), whilst summer temperature and sunshine duration have progressively increased with fewer frost days but no linear trend for precipitation (Table 1)
Summary
Considerable research has been carried out on the link between weather and wine quality. The general consensus from viticulture regions around the world is that weather is a major determinant of inter-annual variation in vintage quality (van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). With considerable warming in recent decades (IPCC, 2014), requires greater understanding of crop quality-weather relations to support the future adaptation of crop production. This is more urgent for perennial, rather than annual, crops where planting decisions have consequences for decades. To our knowledge, has focused on the weather and the wines of Chablis in France.
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