Modelling best fit-curve between China’s production and consumption-based temporal carbon emissions and selective socio-economic driving factors

Abstract

Production and consumption-based approaches are primarily used to determine emissions responsibility at industrial and national levels. China is the world’s topmost emitter under both these approaches. Most of the literature especially for China mainly focuses on drivers of direct GHG emissions. This study based on the curvilinear analysis, models best-fit curves between these two emission types and selective driving factors. GDP, GDP/Capita and GNI best-fit curves didn’t support EKC hypothesis for production-based emissions, while for consumption-based emissions their curves are in support of EKC. Population, population density, Urbanization, C02 intensity and urban population agglomeration all had non-linear best-fit curves. While energy use indicated a linear relation with production-based emissions and non-linear with consumption-based emissions. FDI and renewable energy consumption showed a non-linear negative relation with both emissions. Understanding of the non-linear relationship between vital driving factors and China’s emissions under both approaches can help policymakers formulate more informed mitigation policies.