Modelling Behavioural Preferences in Epidemic Models for Sexually Transmitted Infections on Temporal Networks

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a temporal model for the spreading of curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The model is developed within the framework of activity-driven networks, which allows to model the time-varying pattern of sexual encounters and the individuals’ heterogeneity in their proclivity to initiate them. Our model explicitly includes the delay between infectiousness and symptoms onset, and individuals’ behavioural preferences for the use of protection during encounters. Behavioural preferences evolve according to a nontrivial mechanism that accounts for the perceived risks, the cost of adopting protective measures, and the persuasive effect of interactions with individuals who have a different preference. In the limit of large-scale populations, we use a mean-field approach to derive the epidemic threshold and study the effect of two control measures on the spread of STIs: i) routine screening at STI clinics, and ii) condom (social) marketing campaigns. Our results reveal the important effect of routine screening for STIs, which has emerged as a key factor to favour stability of the disease-free equilibrium, while marketing campaigns can be very effective in mitigating endemic diseases.