Abstract
Abstract: This paper aims to develop new methodology for the Brazilian beef and dairy sectors incorporating different levels of productivities in the Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM), analyzing land use dynamics. Several datasets combinations were used and supply and demand equations were re-estimated. Historical database developed in this paper shows that the livestock sector increased productivity levels per hectare (in both beef and dairy sectors), being an important land releaser for other agricultural uses. Even in frontier regions, the occupation process was followed by productivity increase. When technologies were implemented in BLUM, results show that there were significant differences on land use in 2030, reducing land for pasture compared to BLUM previous version. In this sense, the study concludes that: using average productivity levels on modeling can overestimate pastureland; migration between technologies (lower to higher levels) will continue in the future; and, finally, market and agents' behavior changes might be incorporated in land use economic models, so they can reproduce empirical evidences.
Highlights
Brazil has an important role on beef supply, both for domestic consumption and global exports
Since most of beef and dairy production come from pasture based systems in Brazil, pasture occupies a large amount of land, around 170 million hectares (LAPIG, 2014)
Due to its extension and the possibility to increase the production per hectare, pasture has an important role on land use dynamics with a large potential to release area to crops (COHN et al, 2014)
Summary
Brazil has an important role on beef supply, both for domestic consumption and global exports. Since most of beef and dairy production come from pasture based systems in Brazil, pasture occupies a large amount of land, around 170 million hectares (LAPIG, 2014). Due to its extension and the possibility to increase the production per hectare, pasture has an important role on land use dynamics with a large potential to release area to crops (COHN et al, 2014). According to Martha Jr., Alves and Contini (2011), between 1950 and 2006 productivity yields explained 79% of beef and dairy production increase in Brazil and it was responsible for saving 525 million ha on land use for pastures. This paper has two main objectives: understand Brazilian beef and dairy sectors dynamics (on land use) based on database analysis and development; and build a new module (improving land use dynamics methodology) in BLUM – Brazilian Land Use Model in order to better capture land use dynamics. The following sections will provide detailed methods and methodologies used, step by step
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