Modelling based study on the occurrence characteristics and influencing factors of the typical antibiotics in Bohai Bay

Abstract

Previous studies have demonstrated that antibiotics have the potential impacts to ecosystems and human health. However, due to their various classes and distinct characteristics, creating comprehensive, integrated and dynamic simulations has proven to be a challenging task. In this study, a 3D hydrodynamic-contaminant model was developed to gain a better understanding of the transportation and prevalence of antibiotics in the Bohai Bay. Specifically, we focused on four types of antibiotics as examples. To accurately capture the dynamic distribution of antibiotics, both transport and biochemical processes were taken into account. Based on this model, the antibiotics' spatial and temporal distribution was examined, the potential impact of the future antibiotics consumption and climate change was also analyzed. The study found that human activity has a greater impact on the presence of antibiotics in Bohai Bay than temperature rise. Based on the current consumption rate, the total amount of antibiotics in Bohai Bay may increase by 10 ng/L and affect nearly one third of the study area within the next 20–30 years. The significant impact of human activity on water contamination in coastal areas may also have implications for other coastal regions. This finding can provide a valuable framework for pollution prevention and control.