Modelling and uncertainties in integrated energy planning

Abstract

Significant progress has been done in the last decades to characterise and define uncertainty in model based planning and decision making in general and in areas like integrated assessment or water resource management. However, existing uncertainty typologies are only partially shared. In city or territory integrated energy planning literature less attention has been paid to uncertainty aspect. Integrated energy planning and model building process have been defined on the base of literature review and the need for consideration of uncertainty is highlighted at the beginning of this work. Using this planning and modelling framework, a conceptual basis of uncertainty showing the allocation of different types of uncertainty according to each planning and modelling stage is provided. Uncertainty concepts proposed in existing typologies of uncertainty from different domains are harmonised into a framework and adapted to the special energy modelling and planning conditions, in a holistic way. Based on this framework, a review of practices in energy planning and modelling shows the gap between needs and practices and raises the question of methodological supports for fulfilling it. The suggested framework can be used to identify and classify different types of uncertainty in context of sustainable model based integrated energy planning in cities or territories, or develop methods to address them.