Abstract
Background: Daily paediatric asthma readmissions within 28 days are a good example of a low count time series and not easily amenable to common time series methods used in studies of asthma seasonality and time trends. We sought to model and predict daily trends of childhood asthma readmissions over time inVictoria,Australia. Methods: We used a database of 75,000 childhood asthma admissions from the Department ofHealth,Victoria,Australiain 1997-2009. Daily admissions over time were modeled using a semi parametric Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and by sex and age group. Predictions were also estimated by using these models. Results: N = 2401 asthma readmissions within 28 days occurred during study period. Of these, n = 1358 (57%) were boys. Overall, seasonal peaks occurred in winter (30.5%) followed by autumn (28.6%) and then spring (24.6%) (p p
Highlights
Asthma is the most common long-term medical condition in children [1]
We aimed to developed a time series model of childhood asthma readmissions, using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) framework [24] to predict daily childhood asthma readmissions overall, as well as for males and females separately
We display the time series graphs of the total daily readmission counts for each of the study fiscal years (1st July to 30th June). These are typical of low count time series, that is, infrequently occurring and low magnitude counts
Summary
Asthma is the most common long-term medical condition in children [1]. Children have higher rates of asthma hospitalization than adults. In Australia, children aged 0 14 years account for 58% of total asthma admissions [2]. Being aware of the days/times of the year when childhood asthma readmissions are expected to increase may assist in the achievement of better and more efficient health service planning. Paediatric asthma readmissions within 28 days are a good example of a low count time series and not amenable to common time series methods used in studies of asthma seasonality and time trends. We sought to model and predict daily trends of childhood asthma readmissions over time in Victoria, Australia. Methods: We used a database of 75,000 childhood asthma admissions from the Department of Health, Victoria, Australia in 1997-2009. Our model implied: health services may need to be revised to accommodate for seasonal peaks in readmission especially for younger age groups
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
