Modelling and outcome analysis of a competitive environment – A probabilistic approach

Abstract

Competition is one of the underlining phenomena in the world that has been continuously deforming the life and history of human beings, animals, plants and even microorganisms. The results of different competitions are fascinating from explanation of evolution to the dramatic industrial revolution. The article proposes a mathematical model to estimate the outcome probability of different competitors in a competition system on account of the number of failure gates associated. The article includes special cases like the tournament model considering the number of failure gates which are likely at various levels of competition. The study additionally gives the idea of identical probability curves on account of eight member competitions which is highly relevant in strategy and decision making process and there by sustainability of an individual competitor gets ensured. The concept of identical probability utilised here will help to understand the different scenarios in a competitive environment, with similar chance for occurrence. The model developed will definitely be a more practically relevant substitute for conventional probabilistic tools, including Bayesian approaches and whilst the character of considering bulk of competitors all together, enabling the model itself to find further extensions in the dimension of modern game theory as well. The time-dependent behaviour of number of failure gate envisaged provides more practical scope for the mathematical model presented. The model is applicable to analyse the trust related issues in supply chain with huge number of suppliers participating and also in the areas of decision making in the field of industrial management and completion science as a whole.