Modelling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Telephones in India

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to estimate the future trend and analyze the pattern and rate of adoption of telephones in India. The paper uses S-shaped growth curve models for the same. It is found that the teledensity in India will increase from 12.6 telephones per 100 inhabitants in 2005-06 to 107.5 telephones per 100 inhabitants in 2015-16. Consequently, telephone subscriber base is projected to increase from 140 million in 2005-06 to 1361 million in 2015-16. Moreover, mobile phone is becoming and will continue to become the dominant means for accessing communication. It is estimated that the modal share of mobile phone will increase from around 64% in 2005-06 to nearly 85% in 2015-16. Due to this, mobile subscriber base will increase from 90 million in 1995-96 to more than 1150 million in 2015-16. The projected rapid growth in telephone subscriber base will have important implications for telecom operators, infrastructure providers, handset suppliers, and vendors. Telecom operators should be ready with contingency plans to deploy and operate infrastructure including customer care, billing, applications, etc., faster than that they might have initially planned. Infrastructure providers, handset suppliers, and vendors should be prepared to respond to such plans.