Abstract
The environmental situation in the Khmelnytskyi oblast has been analyzed, models and forecasts of indicators have been developed by methods of extrapolation, regression analysis and trend models, and the quality of forecasting has been estimated. Namely, the models of influence of selected factors on the environmental situation in the Khmelnytskyi oblast have been developed. Oneand multifactorial regression models have been constructed, conclusions about the degree of influence of factors have been made. Trend models of indicators of the ecological situation in the region have been constructed. Estimates of pollutant emissions, indicators of the creation and disposal of hazardous waste have been developed using different forecasting methods. These calculations can be used to carry out activities aimed at protecting the environment.
Highlights
As a result of human economic activity in the natural environment, non-typical substances are accumulated, with solid wastes and chemical compounds that lead to environmental pollution among which
The purpose of this study is to provide a theoretical justification and practical implementation of existing approaches to the study, modeling and forecasting of environmental performance indicators by methods of economic and mathematical modeling
The coefficient of determination in predicting the “utilized hazardous waste” indicator showed a value greater than 0.5, i.e. all trend models can be used for forecasting
Summary
As can be seen from the table, all the forecasting methods did not perform very well. The average annual growth rate was the best among simple forecasting methods, it showed the smallest deviation from the actual data (25.7%), the worst in this case was the average absolute growth method (65.9% deviation). All the prediction methods were inaccurate in this case, since they all have a large error of more than 10%
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