Abstract
Indian economy is critically dependent on monsoon rainfall. Its precise modelling and forecasting is extremely important for efficient planning and other policy implications. A variety of statistical techniques have been employed in the past to achieve the task. Wavelet analysis is a very powerful newly developing methodology for data analysis. In this paper, this methodology with thresholding is thoroughly discussed and applied to model and forecast meteorological subdivision's rainfall time-series data. Comparison with traditional approaches, like Autoregressive integrated moving average time-series approach and Nonparametric regression approach using local linear regression smoother shows superiority of proposed methodology for data set under consideration.
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