Modelling and Forecast of Future Growth for Shandong’s Small Industrial Towns: A Scenario-Based Interactive Approach

Abstract

The industrial small-town development process in Shandong is influenced by the urban agglomeration strategy and the regional collaborative production, thereby resulting in a challenge of growth boundary planning. How to build a growth forecast decision support system to help small industrial towns maintain sustainable development with limited trial and error costs is an essential topic in the current research of small town-related fields. Empirical analysis reveals that the growth factors of small towns differ from the factors of cities due to the other-organization planning management system and self-organization construction activities that coexist in small towns. Besides, due to the size of small towns, the impact of policy changes in small towns is more significant than in cities. Furthermore, as part of the regional production chain, small industrial towns are most vulnerable to uncertain external disturbances. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate different development scenarios according to possible disturbances and output corresponding development forecasts. The research aims to build a decision-making support system for Shandong’s small-town planning based on an urban modeling approach using geographic information technology and scenario planning. Considering the mutually driving effects of the objective environment and subjective policies of Shandong’s industrial towns, as well as the corresponding dynamic mechanisms and comparing the theoretical basis and limitations of the different modeling approaches, this essay constructs a model system based on a mathematical model and a system dynamics model. It is also an interactive model accompanied by applicable rules and factors so that initial information and relevant development goals can be inputted into the model system to simulate the influence of different policies and identify the small industrial town growth scenarios.