Modelling and analyzing dynamic system for transmission of Paragonimiasis

Abstract

Paragonimiasis is caused by the invasion of Paragonimus westermani in the host. Since its proliferation will lead to the decrease of cell density in the host or even death, the quantitative study of its epidemic rule is an important reference for the prevention and control works, but which is lacking study. The significance of studying the transmission of paragonimiasis lies in its multi-intermediate host infection route. We modelled the transmission mechanism of Paragonimiasis based on the SICR model and its variants, in which population are categorized as susceptible, mildly infected, severely infected, and recovered. We theoretically derive the disease-free equilibrium of the proposed dynamical system, as well as the basic reproduction number. Based on the basic reproduction number, we further discussed the impact of infection rates, recovery rates, and mortality rates in mildly and severely infected patients on the control of outbreak transmission. These results have clinical and guiding implications of the early protection and control of severely infected patients.