Abstract

A simple discrete time, open compartmental, and deterministic mathematical model is developed and used to analyze the costs and benefits of voluntary confidential screening (followed by voluntary educational counselling of HIV positives) aimed at slowing the AIDS epidemic in the population of homosexual, bisexual, and heterosexual males and their companion females. Screening is modelled as an influential change on the infection transmission rate between identified HIV-positive individuals and susceptible contacts. It incorporates the efficacy of information on sero-positivity and/or sero-negativity and the optional counselling program in preventing transmission of AIDS. Using the model, the author compiles numerical projections for the next decade and use these to evaluate the effect of different screening policies on the natural behavior of the AIDS epidemic.

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