Modelling and analysis of vehicle accident under mixed traffic conditions in Ilu Ababor zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

Modelling and analysis of traffic accident has vital role in reduction of vehicle accident. This study is aimed to assess the rate traffic accident over the ranges of several years and to model traffic accident with influencing parameters. The data used for study were; Geometry of the road, recorded traffic accidents, traffic volume, surface condition of the road, driver behavior and road infrastructure. The result shows that, the death rate in vehicle accident from 2001 to 2004, 2006 to 2008 and 2009-2010 is increasing. Also, from 2004 to 2006, 2008 to 2009 and 2010 to 2013 shows the decreasing. In major injury, it is increasing in first five years except 2004 which shows some significant change. In the next four years from 2005 to 2009 it shows decreasing except 2007 which shows a significant increasing. From 2010 to 2013 it is decreasing in non-uniform manner. In minor injury due to vehicle accident, it shows increasing in first seven years and decreasing from 2004 to 2013, which improvement in road safety aspect. In property damage, it shows in increasing significantly from 2001 to 2005. After 2005 even though, estimated property lost is increasing or high the number of accidents recorded as property damage is decreasing which shows a little improvement. The important index of vehicle accident in heterogeneous traffic condition is rate of accident which has been computed for four years. Estimated rate of accident for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 are 152, 98, 469, and 103 respectively. Multiple linear regression model has been developed to show the significance the predictors on the traffic accident. The developed regression model indicates that, lack of geometric design is the major factor that pay role in traffic accident of study area. The determinant of vehicle accident is operating speed. Finally, black spot area in each Woreda has been identified.