Abstract
ABSTRACTMosquitoes are vectors for many diseases that cause significant mortality and morbidity. As mosquito populations expand their range, they may undergo mate-finding Allee effects such that their ability to successfully reproduce becomes difficult at low population density. With new technology, creating target specific gene modification may be a viable method for mosquito population control. We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effects of releasing transgenic mosquitoes into newly established, low-density mosquito populations. Our model consists of two life stages (aquatic and adults), which are divided into three genetically distinct groups: heterogeneous and homogeneous transgenic that cause female infertility and a homogeneous wild type. We perform analytical and numerical analyses on the equilibria to determine the level of saturation needed to eliminate mosquitoes in a given area. This model demonstrates the potential for a gene drive system to reduce the spread of invading mosquito populations.
Highlights
Mosquitoes have been labelled the deadliest animal [19] as more than half a million people die each year from mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue and malaria [36,37]
We develop a mathematical model that describes the population dynamics of emerging mosquito populations following the introduction of transgenic mosquitoes and in the presence of a potential Allee effect
We find the ability of transgenic mosquitoes with fertility costs to reduce or eliminate the total population, with the magnitude of reduction dependent on the strength of the gene drive, the reduction in fertility, and the Allee effect
Summary
Mosquitoes have been labelled the deadliest animal [19] as more than half a million people die each year from mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue and malaria [36,37]. Methods such as insecticide-treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, space treatment, and larvicide application have led to significant headway in disease control by directly targeting the mosquito populations [18,34]. It is not a straightforward task to replace insecticides used in treated mosquito nets, which require low toxicity due to their close proximity to humans [20]. Effective control of mosquito populations may require novel control measures to supplement existing tactics
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