Abstract
Invasive Alien Species (IAS) pose a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. Even if preventing biological invasions should be the most cost-effective way to minimise the impact of IAS on biodiversity, new efforts are necessary to identify early signs of invasion and to assess invasion risk. In this context, the implementation of invasive Species Distribution Models (iSDMs) could represent a sound instrument that merits further research. Acaciasaligna is an Australian vascular plant introduced into Europe during the last half century and is one of the most aggressive IAS in the Mediterranean basin. In this work, we model the occurrence of A.saligna in the coastal landscapes of central Italy (Adriatic coast) while accounting for the simultaneous effect of multiple factors (propagule pressure, abiotic, biotic factors). The iSDM for A.saligna was implemented on a representative tract of the Adriatic coast in central Italy (Molise region), largely included in two Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites which actively contribute to the description of the considered ecosystem status and possible future trends. By using a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with a binomial distribution of errors based on field and cartographic geo-referenced data, we examined the statistical relationship between the occurrence of A.saligna and a comprehensive set of environmental factors. The iSDM effectively captured the role of the different variables in determining the occurrence of A.saligna in the coastal dunes. Its occurrence is primarily related to Wooded dunes with Pinuspinea and/or P.pinaster (EU Habitat 2270) and distance from the sea and, to a lesser extent, with distance from roads and rivers. This research provides a first exploratory analysis of the environmental characteristics that promote the rapid growth and development of A.saligna in Italian dune ecosystems, identifying the habitats that are mainly affected by the invasive process in coastal areas and, by doing so, contributing to filling the gap between theory and practice in conservation decision-making. Finally, the LTER network benefitted from this research, confirming its relevance in providing useful information for modelling and monitoring invasion processes.
Highlights
The occurrences of A. saligna were associated with propagule pressure (P) (Table 2), with higher probabilities of finding the species in proximity to roads (Fig. 2)
Amongst the biotic factors (B), A. saligna was significantly associated with Pinus sp. dune woods
The multi-temporal nature of Long-Term Ecological Research sites (LTER) data offers a unique opportunity to monitor variations and environmental conditions over time and to identify, through multi-temporal invasive Species Distribution Models (iSDMs) (e.g. Carone et al 2014), the factors and phenomena that underlie the changes occurring in invasive alien species distribution over time. This integrative analysis of the occurrence of the non-native species A. saligna in coastal landscapes, including a single model using the simultaneous effect of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors, allowed us to effectively depict those critical drivers for determining the presence of this highly invasive plant in the Mediterranean dunes and to define areas with different probabilities of invasion
Summary
The establishment, growth and expansion of invasive alien species depend on a combination of mechanisms related to both ecology of the species and the assembly of environmental factors (Lockwood et al 2005, Richardson and Pyšek 2006, Malavasi et al 2018). Biological invasions are promoted by a wide range of drivers that can be schematically grouped into three main components, the so called PAB factors: Propagule pressure (P), Abiotic characteristics of the invaded ecosystem (A) and Biotic interaction between invasive species and recipient community (B) (Catford et al 2009). An alien species entering into a new area can either gain or lose biotic interactions capable of facilitating or constraining the invasion (Mitchell et al 2006)
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