Abstract
Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a manifestation of the Sun’s eruptive nature. They can have a great impact on Earth, but also on human activity in space and on the ground. Therefore, modelling their evolution as they propagate through interplanetary space is essential. Aims. EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a data-driven, physics-based model, tracing the evolution of CMEs through background solar wind conditions. It employs a spheromak flux rope, which provides it with the advantage of reconstructing the internal magnetic field configuration of CMEs. This is something that is not included in the simpler cone CME model used so far for space weather forecasting. This work aims at assessing the spheromak CME model included in EUHFORIA. Methods. We employed the spheromak CME model to reconstruct a well observed CME and compare model output to in situ observations. We focus on an eruption from 6 January 2013 that was encountered by two radially aligned spacecraft, Venus Express and STEREO-A. We first analysed the observed properties of the source of this CME eruption and we extracted the CME properties as it lifted off from the Sun. Using this information, we set up EUHFORIA runs to model the event. Results. The model predicts arrival times from half to a full day ahead of the in situ observed ones, but within errors established from similar studies. In the modelling domain, the CME appears to be propagating primarily southward, which is in accordance with white-light images of the CME eruption close to the Sun. Conclusions. In order to get the observed magnetic field topology, we aimed at selecting a spheromak rotation angle for which the axis of symmetry of the spheromak is perpendicular to the direction of the polarity inversion line (PIL). The modelled magnetic field profiles, their amplitude, arrival times, and sheath region length are all affected by the choice of radius of the modelled spheromak.
Highlights
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are enormous plasma clouds ejected from the solar corona with velocities that can reach up to 3000 km s−1 and a mass that can be up to a few 1016 g (e.g., Webb & Howard 2012)
We analysed a multi-spacecraft CME encounter in order to investigate whether the EUHFORIA model can reconstruct the evolution of the flux rope observed by two radially aligned spacecraft
The event, an extended filament eruption that occurred on 6 January 2013, created clear in situ signatures at Venus Express and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A, while it only produced a mild disturbance at MESSENGER
Summary
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are enormous plasma clouds ejected from the solar corona with velocities that can reach up to 3000 km s−1 and a mass that can be up to a few 1016 g (e.g., Webb & Howard 2012). From their onset and throughout their journey, CMEs and their embedded flux ropes can undergo deformation, kink, rotation, deflection, and erosion through reconnection (Kay et al 2015; Kay & Opher 2015; Heinemann et al 2019) Regardless of whether these types of processes take place close to the Sun or further out in interplanetary space, they affect the spatial and magnetic field configuration of the CME, complicating forecasts of its arrival and geoeffectiveness (Möstl et al 2015). We focus on the model’s capability to predict the arrival time of the CME and the temporal profiles of its magnetic field magnitude and components, as well as on estimating the evolution of the CME in interplanetary space For this purpose, a CME that has been well observed by multiple spacecraft at varying heliospheric distances was chosen following the selection criteria described in Sect.
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