Abstract
ABSTRACT: Given limited available data and the present state of knowledge on the social aspects of irrigation, there is a need to develop new quantitative methods to measure water management performance in large‐scale systems. A qualitative response framework is adapted to formulate a dynamic logit model of weekly field water adequacy and quantify indirectly farmer water utilization. Model parameters are estimated in a weighted least‐squares regression using four seasons of data from a Philippine canal system. Estimated coefficients and independent model forecasts indicate greater effective use of rainfall than irrigation in sustaining high levels of water adequacy during the rainy season. Irrigation utilization is two times higher in the dry season, while system location has a much smaller but still significant impact. Utilization rates for both rain and irrigation showed considerable responsiveness to the prevailing scarcity of water. The qualitative response approach is well suited to the aggregated data available for large‐scale systems, and allows advances in modeling dynamic water management behavior. Formal evaluation of the model will require further empirical applications.
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