Abstract
A velvetbean caterpillar (VBC), Anticarsia gemmatalis Hubner, population model was developed for use in a pest management program. The processes of oviposition, development, mortality, and immigration are modeled. Temperature effects on oviposition and development rates are included, as well as differences in individual response to temperature. Information in the literature and field data were used to set the parameters of the model, with simulated larval populations compared with field larval populations for 1 year. Early season population dynamics were well described by the model for an additional 2 years. Late-season population dynamics were well described in only 1 of the other 2 years, due to an outbreak 1 year of the entomogenous fungus Nomuraea rileyi Farlow (Sampson), which caused the VBC population to crash. A Nomuraea model is needed to improve predictions when weather conditions are favorable for the disease. Sensitivity analyses indicated that accurate estimates of adult influx into the field are important to predict population dynamics of VBC within the field.
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