Modeling Vehicle–Pedestrian Interactions using a Nonprobabilistic Regression Approach

Abstract

Understanding how vehicle drivers and pedestrians interact is key to identifying countermeasures that improve the safety of the interactions. As a result, techniques that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of safety countermeasures and traffic control devices without the need to wait for the availability of crash data are needed. Using video, the interactions between right-turning vehicles and conflicting pedestrians were documented and quantified using vehicle and pedestrian position timestamps. Interactions documented were purposely narrow in scope to obtain a controlled dataset. Logged timestamps enabled the calculation of values such as time to complete a right turn and time for a pedestrian to reach a critical conflict point when a vehicle initiated a right turn. A nonprobabilistic regression model explaining the relationship between the calculated values was created. The model described the expected behavior of right-turning drivers: when drivers perceive the possibility of a pedestrian reaching a critical conflict point at the same time as them, they will modify their behavior, even if not coming to a complete stop. This behavior is not a surprise and has been previously documented in the literature. The primary contribution of this research is demonstrating that by analyzing a narrow set of interactions, clear and simple models that mostly explain the interactions between right-turning vehicles and pedestrians can be developed using nonprobabilistic linear regression techniques. An argument is made that the model parameters can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic control devices.