MODELING VACCINE PREVENTABLE VECTOR-BORNE INFECTIONS: YELLOW FEVER AS A CASE STUDY

Abstract

In this paper, we propose and simulate a deterministic model for a vector-borne disease in the presence of a vaccine. The model allows the assessment of the impact of an imperfect vaccine with various characteristics, which include waning protective immunity, incomplete vaccine-induced protection and adverse events. We find three threshold parameters which govern the existence and stability of the equilibrium points. Our stability analysis suggests that the reduction in the mosquito fertility theoretically is the most effective factor of reducing disease prevalence in both low and high transmission areas. To illustrate the theoretical results, the model is simulated by the example of yellow fever. We also perform sensitivity analyses to determine the importance of both vaccine-induced mortality rate and disease-induced mortality rate for determining a control strategy. We found that there is an optimum vaccination rate, above which people die by the vaccination and below which people die by the disease.