Modeling User Demand Evolution for Next-Basket Prediction

Abstract

Users' purchase behaviors are complex and dynamic, which are usually driven by various personal demands evolving with time. According to psychology and economic theories, user demands can be satisfied with a sequence of purchase behaviors, resulting in a basket of items. However, most of the existing works simply predict the next basket from a shallow perspective of (purchase) sequence data modeling without deep insight into the underlying factors which drive user purchase behaviors. In fact, filling a basket with multiple items is a process to incrementally satisfy a user's demand. Therefore, the key challenges to predict a user's next basket lie in (1) how to track the changes of the user's demand, and (2) how to satisfy her demand at a given moment. To this end, we propose an Evolving DEmand SAtisfaction (EvoDESA) model to model a user's demand evolution for next-basket prediction. In EvoDESA, a demand evolution module learns the dynamics of user demand over a sequence of basket-purchase behaviors. Then, a next-basket planning module effectively packs an optimal combination of items to best satisfy the user's current demand. Extensive experiments on three real-world transaction datasets demonstrate the considerable superiority of EvoDESA over the state-of-the-art approaches.