Modeling Urban Growth Trajectories and Spatiotemporal Pattern: A Case Study of Lucknow City, India

Abstract

Indian cities are facing rapid and unplanned urbanization in the present scenario and expanding at a miraculous amount. The unprecedented speed of expansion is a major challenge for urban planners and policy makers due to unavailability of the current database and the lack of appropriate analysis of unplanned urban expansion. This study dispenses an approach to these challenges by deploying the capabilities of remote sensing data for Lucknow city, India. The spatiotemporal analysis of expansion model integrated with driving factors is required for sustainable development of the city. The study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal urban growth trajectories integrated with driving factors of Lucknow city and its surrounding area in the period of 26 years i.e., from 1990 to 2016. An expansion model is proposed in the study for a precise examination of urban expansion topologies and its quantification. The model is processed using remote sensing satellite data of Landsat sensor of the year 1990, 1999, 2009 and 2016. The study utilizes land-use and land-cover classification maps of study years for analyzing urban trajectory model. The expansion pattern is formulated using patch distribution analysis and quantification based upon spatial built-up densities of urban patches. Further, these patches are classified in four classes of expansion—edge, infill, leapfrog and ribbon. Moreover, six different statistical parameters are formulated for quantification of detailed urban growth analysis. Patch distribution analysis has been performed for monitoring the patch size variation during study years. The villages are demarcated and significant changes are analyzed (where transition took place) and integrated with the driving factors responsible for the changes. The study indicates the dominating urban pattern and the driving factors responsible in the expansion of the built-up urban area of Lucknow city.