Abstract
We present a model of fire spread in Mediterranean and Middle-Eastern (MME) cities. The model accounts for the characteristic properties of MME cities: inflammable constructions and vegetation between constructions that becomes highly flammable during long and dry summers. We develop the model following the general rules proposed by Lee and Davidson in their empirically driven model of urban fire spread for the US city while establishing a new MME data generation algorithm for non-flammable constructions. The model is applied to a residential neighborhood in Haifa, Israel. Results demonstrate that unlike in the US, in MME cities interconstruction vegetation is the main mechanism of fire spread. Heterogeneity of the vegetation cover generates significant spatial variation of expected burnt area; in these circumstances, the model provides critical knowledge about the most vulnerable urban spots.
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