Modeling urban expansion in the transnational area of Changbai Mountain: A scenario analysis based on the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban model

Abstract

Modeling urban expansion in the transnational area of Changbai Mountain (TACM) is important for regional sustainable development. Nonetheless, few studies investigated future urban expansion across the whole TACM. By using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model, this study simulated urban expansion across the whole TACM during 2015–2050. We first analyzed the urban expansion across the TACM during 1992–2015. Then, urban land demands were calculated for the Chinese side, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK's) side, and the Russian side using urban population data under the SSPs, respectively. Finally, we simulated urban expansion by using the zoned LUSD-urban model. The results indicated that the urban land in the TACM will grow from 870.57 km2 to 1025.78–1386.50 km2 during 2015–2050, and the DPRK's side will become the primary region of urban expansion, where its urban land area will raise from 174.78 km2 to 232.46–357.58 km2. We also found that the urban expansion on the DPRK's side will be at the expense of cropland and natural habitats, which will cause serious consequences on the regional food security and ecological security. We recommend that urban expansion should be regulated to promote the regional sustainable development.