Modeling Urban Encroachment on the Agricultural Land of the Eastern Nile Delta Using Remote Sensing and a GIS-Based Markov Chain Model

Kelsee Bratley,Eman Ghoneim

doi:10.3390/land7040114

Abstract

Historically, the Nile Delta has played an integral part in Egyptian civilization, as its fertile soils have been cultivated for centuries. The region offers a lush oasis among the expansive arid climate of Northern Africa; however, in recent decades, many anthropogenic changes to the environment have jeopardized Egypt’s agricultural productivity. Political instability and lack of sufficient regulations regarding urban growth and encroachment have put agricultural land in the area at risk. Advanced geospatial techniques were used to assess the rate at which urban areas are increasing within the region. A hybrid classification of Landsat satellite imagery for the eastern sector of the Nile Delta, between the years 1988 and 2017, was conducted to map major land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes. The statistical change analysis revealed that urban areas increased by 222.5% over the study period (29 years). Results indicated that urban areas are encroaching mainly on established agricultural lands within the Nile Delta. Most of the change has occurred within the past nine years, where approximately 235.60 km2 of the cultivated lands were transitioned to urban. Nonetheless, at the eastern delta flank, which is bordered by desert, analysis indicated that agricultural lands have experienced a considerable growth throughout the study period due to a major desert reclamation effort. Areas most at risk from future urban expansion were identified. A simulation of future urban expansion, using a Markov Chain algorithm, indicated that the extent to which urban area is simulated to grow in the region is 16.67% (277.3 km2) and 37.82% (843 km2) by the year 2026, and 2050, respectively. The methods used in this study are useful in assessing the rate of urban encroachment on agricultural lands and can be applied to similar at-risk areas in the regions if appropriate site-specific modifications are considered.

Highlights

In the latter half of the twentieth century, anthropogenically induced environmental land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) emerged as a predominant driver in global environmental vicissitude [1,2].The rapid rate of modern landscape change has surpassed what is capable from natural forces, suggesting additional drivers of change [3,4,5] identifies urbanization as the predominant driver in pervasive LULCC.The global decline in arable land, vegetative cover, natural habitat, and biodiversity demonstrate the far-reaching effects of urbanization [2,6,7,8]
In the 2026 and 2050 hard simulations, urban areas increased by 16.67% (277.27 km2 or 68,515 acres) and 37.82% (843.03 km2 or 208,317.2 acres), respectively, from 2017
The present study reaffirms the integration of remote sensing, GIS, and statistical models as valuable and practical tools for exploring spatiotemporal changes of LULC and predicting urban encroachment on agricultural lands, in relatively data scarce regions

Summary

Introduction

In the latter half of the twentieth century, anthropogenically induced environmental land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) emerged as a predominant driver in global environmental vicissitude [1,2]. The global decline in arable land, vegetative cover, natural habitat, and biodiversity demonstrate the far-reaching effects of urbanization [2,6,7,8]. Urbanization is significantly affecting the functionality of the Earth System by critically altering ecosystems and contributing to global effects such as climate change [2,9,10,11]. The global urban population is on the rise, and its action is reciprocal. By the year 2050, the global urban population is predicted to reach 66% [13]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion