Abstract
Abstract. The population size, population density and rate of urbanization are often crediting to contributing increasing a crime pattern specially in city. Urbanism model stating that the rise in urban crime and social problems is based on three population indicators namely; size, density and heterogeneity. The objective of this paper is to identify crime patterns of the hot spot urban crime location and the factors influencing the crime pattern relationship with population size, population density and rate of urbanization population. This study employed the ArcGIS Pro 2.4 tool such as Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (Space Time) to determine a crime pattern and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression to determine the factors influencing the crime patterns. By using these analyses tools, this study found that 54 (53%) out of 102 total neighbourhood locations (2011–2017 years) had a 99 percent significance confidence level where z-score exceeded +2.58 with a small p-value (p < 0.01) as the hot spot crime location. The result of data analysis using OLS regression explains that combination of exploratory variable model rate of urbanization and population size contributes 56 percent (R2 = 0.559) variance in crime index rate incident [F (3,39) = 18.779, p < 0.01). While the population density (β = 0.045, t = 0.700, p > 0.10) is not a significance contributes to the change in crime index rate in Petaling and Klang district. The importance of the study is useful information for encouraging government and law enforcement agencies to promote safety and reduce risk of urban population crime areas.
Highlights
United Nation (UNDESA, 2017, p.3) stated “crime is studied in order to prevent it”
In Malaysia, a study by Sidhu (2005) based on index crimes from 1990 to 2002 years found an increase in crime rates affected by population growth, unemployment, races problem, illegal workers and narcotics
Previous studies used correlation methods in examining the significant indicator of urbanism model without paying attention to spatial aspects of the location urban areas affected by crime incident
Summary
United Nation (UNDESA, 2017, p.3) stated “crime is studied in order to prevent it”. The population size, population density and rate of urbanization are often crediting to contributing increasing a crime pattern especially in a city. The study of urban population and crime almost 190 years old and it based on a noble first study about mapping crime and population in city by Guerry dan Quetelet (1833) in early 19th century at France (Eck & Weisburd, 1995; Paulsen & Robinson, 2004; Weisburd et al, 2012; Chainey & Ratcliffe, 2013; Wortley and Mazerolle, 2017). In Malaysia, a study by Sidhu (2005) based on index crimes from 1990 to 2002 years found an increase in crime rates affected by population growth, unemployment, races problem, illegal workers and narcotics It is worth noting, previous studies used correlation methods in examining the significant indicator of urbanism model without paying attention to spatial aspects of the location urban areas affected by crime incident. The scale of analysis study is 43 urban boundaries for uniformity unit area analysis with standard distance interval is 400 meters with interval time for entire study for 84 months (2011-2017 years) and 1 month for each year for 7 years
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