Modeling Transformation Pathways of European Final Energy Consumption in the Transport and Buildings Sector Using Country Clustering

Abstract

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the European transport and buildings sector, it is imperative to transform their final energy consumption (FEC). This process of transformation varies across countries, for example, demonstrated by the discrepancy in new registration shares of electric passenger cars between Norway (64%) and Poland (<1%) in 2021. To account for these disparities in the modeling of the transformation, a scenario with Clusterwise Pathways alongside a Common Pathway scenario is developed. The country clusters are formed for each sector using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm. The models TraM (transport), PriHM (private households), and TerM (tertiary sector) are employed to simulate the FEC for the European Union (EU), Switzerland, Norway, and the UK from 2019 to 2050 per energy carrier, application, country, and year. Regional constraints, such as depleted district heating potentials in Scandinavia, impose limitations on creating the Common Pathway. Also, the success of transformation is influenced by structural differences like the ratio of new registrations to existing vehicles in each country. The findings underscore the necessity of employing cluster‐specific pathways to adequately account for regional characteristics and constraints when modeling the transformation of FEC in the European transport and buildings sectors.