Modeling Tourism Demand of Iran and Selected Countries (Application of ARDL Method)

Abstract

Today, the tourism industry is one of the most influential industries in the economies of societies, especially in countries seeking a substitute for the export of single-product resources. Having a young population seeking job and great tourism attractions in the region and the world, Iran is in a good place in terms of tourist attraction. Despite the favorable conditions, its status is not favorable in comparison to similar countries. Accordingly, the present study aims to analyze the main determinants of international tourism demand of Iran by examining the current and desirable situation during the period of 1991-2018. Also, it aims to estimate the function of tourism demand in Iran in this time period using the ARDL method. The results of the present study show that the variables of national income of the origin countries (tourist sender), the volume of trade between Iran and other countries, security, as well as the ratio of consumer price index in Iran to consumer price index in origin countries are the most important determinant indicators of Iran’s international tourism demand in the short and long term, respectively. In addition, the negative elasticity of security and price index and the positive elasticity of national income and trade volume, as well as the positive coefficient of the number of tourists in the previous period indicate the effect of these indicators in this study. Keywords: Tourism demand, ARDL, demand determinants.