Abstract
ROEWE E50, JAC iev4, ZOYTE 5008EV, and BYD E6 battery electric vehicles are being demonstrated in 25 cities of different scale represented by Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hefei. This article presented four battery electric vehicles total lifecycle ownership cost model based on urban driving cycles and traffic data of that three cities. Five scenarios were given about basic, local government subsidy, battery price decreasing, gasoline price increasing, and battery price decreasing with gasoline price increasing and an analysis was made of battery electric vehicles’ market competitiveness during 15 years nominal lifecycle. The results show that the high purchase cost is the biggest obstacle factor for battery electric vehicle commercialization. Within battery price decreasing scenario and gasoline price increasing scenario, battery electric vehicles under ¥150,000 have competitiveness. When battery price decreases with the increase in gasoline price both under optimistic scenarios, battery electric vehicles under ¥200,000 will be more competitive than Conventional Vehicles. The sensitive factors to battery electric vehicles total ownership cost in proper sequence are battery cycle life, local government subsidy, power consumption, average daily mileage, battery price, and charging price. This article suggests that battery electric vehicles with different battery capacities such as 30, 25, and 20 kWh are suitable for use in metropolitan, large- and medium-sized, and medium- and small-sized cities, represented by Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hefei.
Highlights
In order to ease energy pressure, reduce air pollution, promote the evolution and upgrade of auto industry, ‘‘The CPC central committee’s proposal to formulate the 13th five-year plan for national economic and social development’’ put forward the goal of China’s electric car ownership by 2020 to be 5 million vehicles
According to the survey on consumers conducted by author in 2011, 87% of 2702 interviewees thought that cost is the most important factor to purchase battery electric vehicles (BEVs).[3]
The results show that vehicle price is the most influential factor, followed by battery capacity and battery price, average daily mileage, charging price, and power consumption
Summary
In order to ease energy pressure, reduce air pollution, promote the evolution and upgrade of auto industry, ‘‘The CPC central committee’s proposal to formulate the 13th five-year plan for national economic and social development’’ put forward the goal of China’s electric car ownership by 2020 to be 5 million vehicles. With the battery price decreasing as predicted in section ‘‘Battery price,’’ only JAC iev[4] has competitiveness after using 10–12 years in Shenzhen, while other vehicles have no competitiveness, as shown in Figures 13 and 14 The sensitive factors to BEVs total ownership cost in descending order are battery cycle life, local government subsidy, power consumption, average daily mileage, battery price, and charging price. Considering the differences of average daily mileage in different cities, this article suggests that BEVs with different battery capacities 27–32, 21–25, and 15–20 kWh are suitable for Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hefei, respectively
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