Abstract
Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture, models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up to 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over two years. The results showed good agreement of modelled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in soil water holding capacity. The model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.
Highlights
Grapevines are cultivated on 6 out of 7 continents, between latitudes 4◦ and 51◦ in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and between 6◦ and 45◦ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) across a large diversity of climates [1]
Many of the most valuable areas in terms of quality and reputation are located on steep slopes which may exacerbate the impact of climate change due to a reduced potential for adaptation
The annual ET0 of Geisenheim (50◦ north latitude, based on data from 2000–2013) for a horizontal surface is 791 mm, for a slope inclined by 15◦ 872 mm (+10%) and for a slope of 30◦ 998 mm (+26%)
Summary
Grapevines are cultivated on 6 out of 7 continents, between latitudes 4◦ and 51◦ in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and between 6◦ and 45◦ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) across a large diversity of climates [1]. Since evapotranspiration is largely affected by slope because of the received amount of solar radiation [13], it is necessary to incorporate these aspects into available models [14,15,16] in order to estimate the water balance of sloped vineyards. Such a model needs to account for the feedback of drought stress on transpiration [16,17,18] and has to establish frameworks to account for common cultivation practices. We amended a simple model approach [15] by the implementation of a grapevine specific transpiration coefficient which allowed a decoupling of plant responses to drought either induced by high evaporative demand or by water deficit and used the model in conjunction with 4 time series of regional climate models to project possible changes of drought stress risk for three vineyards of the Rheingau grape growing region
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