Abstract
There is broad agreement on the need for substantial use of low carbon vectors in the long term in the transport sector. Electrification, via mass market adoption of plug-in vehicles (i.e. battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), has emerged as a front runner for road transport across the globe, but there are concerns that the pace and extent implied by many modeling studies is problematic and that assessment of (a) the heterogeneity in the market, (b) other low carbon vectors (e.g. conventional hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell) and (c) life cycle energy and environmental impacts have been relatively neglected. This paper aims to fill these gaps by examining the timing, scale and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in the heterogeneous UK car market from a consumer perspective. To achieve this aim it (a) brings together a bespoke disaggregated model of the transport-energy-environment system (the UK Transport Carbon Model) with previous work by the authors on heterogeneity in the demand for and supply of plug-in vehicles and (b) applies the improved model to develop future low carbon scenarios that assess the potential impact of different investment pathways and policy approaches to the electrification of cars with the view to meeting the UK’s legally binding carbon budgets to 2050. The results show the importance of accounting for the heterogeneity in and dynamic nature of the car market in terms of new technology adoption by private consumers, so called ‘user choosers’ and fleet managers, as well as accounting for potential effects on wider life cycle emissions resulting from different uptake pathways. It allows an assessment of the effectiveness of different policy instruments, market conditions (vehicle supply, private vs fleet market, vehicle segments) and social factors (consumer awareness, range “anxiety”, perceived charging requirements) on different consumer segments, thus providing more policy-focused conclusions on the likely pathways to high penetration of plug-in vehicles that may be required to meet future carbon and air quality targets.
Highlights
Brand et al / Transportation Research Part A 97 (2017) 121–136 electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)), has emerged as a front runner over the past decade (AEA Technology, 2009; Committee on Climate Change (CCC), 2015; IEA, 2011, 2015a; OLEV, 2013; Sims et al, 2014), but there are concerns that the pace and extent implied by the underlying modeling studies is problematic and that assessment of consumer and market factors, effects of climate change mitigation policies on air quality emissions and overall life cycle emissions have been relatively neglected (Anable et al, 2012; Graham-Rowe et al, 2012; Leinert et al, 2013)
Whilst only 0.6% of new cars were PIV in 2014, the share of sales has nearly doubled to 1.1% in 2015 (Fig. 1); PHEV account for around two-thirds of PIVs being sold in the UK, and battery electric vehicles (BEV) a third
The CCC recommended to ‘‘maintain support for the up-front costs of [plug-in] electric vehicles, while they remain more expensive than conventional alternatives and push for stretching 2030 EU CO2 targets for new cars and vans” (CCC, 2015: p.11); we have focused our analysis on transformation of vehicle supply and infrastructure markets and additional support to reduce up-front costs
Summary
While the sales figures are encouraging, analysis by the UK Committee on Climate Change suggests that 9% of new car sales should be EVs by 2020 and 60% by 2030 (CCC, 2015) to meet carbon budgets cost-effectively This implies mass market adoption of PIV at a rate of nearly doubling each year. The UK policy focus on vehicle technology and supporting fiscal incentives reflects other global transport modeling exercises that project between 40% and 90% market penetrations of PIV between 2030 and 2050 (IEA, 2011, 2015a, 2015b; Kay et al, 2013; Lieven, 2015; McKinsey & Company, 2009; WBCSD, 2004; WEC, 2007) Many of these modeling studies examine car market at the aggregate level, rely on cost-optimization In the context of low carbon vehicle choice behavior, some researchers have recently focused on consumer heterogeneity in terms of their attitudes and demographics (Anable et al, 2014; Axsen et al, 2009; Daziano and Chiew, 2012)
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