Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Hepatitis A with Combined Vaccination and Sanitation Mitigation.

Abstract

A mathematical model for the Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) epidemiology with dual transmission mechanisms is developed and presented. The model considers vaccination and sanitation as mitigation strategies. The effective reproductive number was derived and employed to study the stability of the model. Using Routh's stability criteria, the local stability of a disease-free equilibrium was determined, whereas the global stability of the endemic equilibrium was attained through a suitable Lyapunov function. Furthermore, bifurcation analysis is carried out using the centre manifold theory to ascertain its nature and implication for disease control. It was revealed that the model exhibits a forward bifurcation indicating the possibility of disease eradication when the effective reproduction number is kept below unity. Numerical results indicate that infection rates decrease quantitatively when at least one control measure is effectively implemented. It was deduced that combining vaccination and sanitation yields even fewer cases, making it the best alternative for eliminating Hepatitis A (HA) infection from the community. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to ascertain the parameters of the strong influence that could significantly affect the system. It was revealed that constant recruitment and vaccination coverage were the most critical parameters affecting the system. In addition, the study found that direct transmission plays an essential role in the occurrence of HA infection. In contrast, indirect transmission contributes marginally but significantly to the prevalence of HA infection.