Abstract
Many illicit markets are transnational in nature: illicit products are consumed in a country different from the one in which they were produced. Therefore, reconstructing the trafficking network and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps to gain better understanding of these crimes and to enforce actions aimed at countering them. In this respect, the present study outlines a methodology with which to map and size illicit flows and applies it in estimation of transnational cigarette trafficking flows. The proposed methodology traces each step in the paths followed by illicit cigarettes flowing from their origin to the final consumption country and then estimates the quantity of cigarettes moving between each pair of countries. It exploits data on consumption of illicit cigarettes in 57 countries located in Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa, together with data on seizure cases and geographical information for 158 countries worldwide. These data are combined by a function that assigns a likelihood value of illicit cigarettes being transported between any pair of countries. An algorithm is then implemented in order to identify the most likely paths from the origin to the destination country. By merging results for all the different combinations of origins and destinations, this study estimates the size of all cross-border illicit flows and reconstructs a dynamic transnational cigarette trafficking network for the period 2008–2017. The results highlight the multifaceted role of countries in the cigarette trafficking network, the emergence of identifiable cigarette trafficking routes, and the evolution over time of the structure of this transnational illicit network. Finally, the paper discusses how the methodology developed could be adapted to the study of other transnational crimes.
Highlights
Illicit cigarette trafficking is a global and transnational crime causing substantial losses in public revenues, undermining the effectiveness of smoking-reduction policies, and providing financial resources to organized crime and terrorist groups (Joossens et al 2000; Kulick et al 2016)
In order to fill the gap in the research on transnational cigarette trafficking, we present a methodology to estimate the entire cigarette trafficking network describing the illicit flows of cigarettes consumed in 57 major destination countries
We address the following research questions: 1. What is the structure of the cigarette trafficking network related to illicit cigarette flows destined to be consumed in 57 countries located in Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa?
Summary
Illicit cigarette trafficking is a global and transnational crime causing substantial losses in public revenues, undermining the effectiveness of smoking-reduction policies, and providing financial resources to organized crime and terrorist groups (Joossens et al 2000; Kulick et al 2016). Researchers attempting to resolve these issues mostly focus on estimating and analyzing the prevalence of illicit cigarette consumption in certain countries of interest without focusing on the transnational dimension of the market. It has been applied to the countering of frauds and suspicious activities starting from the analysis of economic transactions or business ownership relations among individuals or legal entities (Fronzetti Colladon and Remondi 2017) Most of these applications focus on micro- or individual-level networks, while only a few studies analyze criminal connections at the macro-level (Giommoni et al 2017). The methodology we propose can potentially be applied in the estimation of trafficking routes of other types of illicit markets, which would make it possible to overcome the central issue in criminal networks research of reconstructing the network of illegal activities on which data are not directly available. The final section discusses limits and potential of the proposed estimation approach before concluding
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