Modeling the Spread of the Zika Virus at the 2016 Olympics

Abstract

The Zika Virus is an arbovirus that is spread by mosquitoes of the \emph{Aedes} genus and causes mild fever-like symptoms. It is strongly associated with microcephaly, a condition that affects development of fetal brains. With the recent emergence of Zika in Brazil, we develop an agent-based model to track mosquitoes and humans throughout the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro to investigate how the Olympics might affect the spread of the virus. There are many unknowns regarding the spread and prevalence of Zika, with approximately 80\% of infected individuals unaware of their infectious status. We therefore discuss results of experiments where several unknown parameters were varied, including the rate at which mosquitoes successfully bite humans, the percentage of initially infected mosquitoes, and the sizes of the human and mosquito populations. From these experiments, we make initial predictions regarding effective control measures for the spread of Zika.