Modeling the spread of an infectious disease with fly-in-fly-out work method

Abstract

The article discusses problems related to building models for the spread of infectious diseases. It explores the relevance of epidemiological modeling in various public spheres, including how production processes can impact disease spread. The article analyzes the possibilities of using compartmental epidemiological models for epidemiological modeling, taking into account population migration and geography. It also considers methods for constructing compartmental models that account for mortality due to the disease. The article proposes an approach to constructing compartmental models that considers population heterogeneity, dividing it into non-overlapping subsets based on contact intensity indicators. Additionally, the article describes a method for modeling migrating subsets within this approach. The article demonstrates the results of constructed epidemiological models for the spread of infection between localities, taking into account migration fly-in-fly-out worker groups. It compares models with different interactions between individuals of subsets and shows that the order of infection spread between subsets affects epidemic dynamics but not the total number of affected individuals. The article also demonstrates that direct contact can accelerate epidemic transmission between subsets compared to transmission through migrating groups. The proposed approach can be used to implement an epidemic simulation system that accounts for migration, geographical factors, and the nature of participant interaction in the production process.