Modeling the Spatiotemporal Seismicity Patterns of the Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on the Coulomb Rate and State Model

Abstract

AbstractIn the past two decades, three major earthquakes have occurred near the Longmen Shan fault zone, Sichuan, China (the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan, and 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes), in response to the continuous collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates, and have produced numerous aftershocks. Recent studies have demonstrated that physics-based aftershock forecasting holds the potential capability to meet the demands of earthquake forecasting. I have successfully modeled the spatiotemporal seismicity of the Longmen Shan fault zone by applying the coulomb rate and state model by including high-quality data products (e.g., source models and receive faults) and optimized rate-and-state parameters in the calculation. I also investigate the roles of secondary triggering of aftershocks and the friction coefficient in seismicity modeling. The findings suggest that the friction coefficient plays an important role in modeling the observed seismicity, and that the secondary triggering of aftershocks in the Longmen Shan fault zone moderately affects the predicted seismicity.