Modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of global electric power consumption (1992–2019) by utilizing consistent nighttime light data from DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS

Abstract

Adequate and up-to-date knowledge of the spatiotemporal dynamics of electricity power consumption (EPC) is important for the sustainable use of global electricity power resources. However, global EPC patterns were not clear after Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) in 2013 due to the significant differences between Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS) and DMSP-OLS. In this paper, global EPC patterns in the recent decade are investigated and assessed for the first time by the proposed locally adaptive method with integrating two nighttime light (NTL) images to global pixel-level EPC from 1992 to 2019. The geospatial dataset of built-up area density (BUAD) is adopted with a higher spatial resolution and more direct relation to human activities. A two-step regression method is designed to simulate DMSP-like images after 2013, based on the inter-annual relationships of provincial-level VIIRS. With this consistent nighttime light dataset, pixel-level EPC over the 28 years are estimated for the first time, and then the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC are investigated from global, continental, to national scales. The obtained EPC estimates are of satisfactory accuracy in 92.6% of the countries with a MARE (Mean of the Absolute Relative Error) of less than 20%. Over these 28 years, Japan, South Korea, and China experienced high proportion of EPC high-growth. These results provide reliable scientific basis for exploring the spatial pattern and temporal variations of global EPC, especially for the latest years.