Abstract
This paper considers the relationship between criminal activity patterns and urban structure. The model of the rational burglar is extended to a simple spatial domain. A set of equilibrium conditions are obtained which relate the criminal activity pattern to a systematic underlying relation between localized risk and opportunity. These conditions suggest that spatial trends in urban crime may be more than mere artifacts of map patterns. Residential burglary data for Indianapolis, Indiana, are used to test the model. Localized effects dominate the autoregressive term in the empirical model. The spatial trend, or autoregressive structure of these data, is shown to be related to variation in localized risk and opportunity as suggested by the theoretical model.
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