Modeling the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation in Northwest Iran

Abstract

Spatial and temporal variability analysis of precipitation is an important task in water resources planning and management. This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the northeastern corner of Iran using data from 24 well-distributed weather stations between 1991 and 2015. The mean annual rainfall, precipitation concentration index (PCI), and their coefficients of variation were mapped to examine the spatial variability of rainfall. An artificial neural network (ANN) in association with the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method was proposed as a hybrid interpolation method to map the spatial distribution of the detected trends of mean annual rainfall and PCI over the study region. In addition, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to annual precipitation time series in order to verify the results of the analysis using the mean annual rainfall and PCI data sets. Results show high variation in inter-annual precipitation in the west, and a moderate to high intra-annual variability over the whole region. Irregular year-to-year precipitation concentration is also observed in the northeastern and northwestern parts. All in all, the highest variations in inter-annual and intra-annual precipitation occurred over the western and northern parts, while the lowest variability was observed in the eastern part (i.e., the coastal region).