Modeling the Southern Sakhalin earthquake sequences preceding strong shocks for short-term prediction of their origin time

Abstract

Retrospective modeling of the sequences of shallow-focus weak earthquakes (M ~ 2.0–3.0) in Southern Sakhalin for the period of 2003–2014 is conducted using the method of self-developing process and the catalogue data of the local network. Mathematical models of the nonlinear increase of the cumulative shocks before strong (M = 4.6–6.2) events are constructed. Short-term forecasts of the parameter T0 (origin time of strong aftershocks) are obtained with a high degree of accuracy. The stability of the solutions obtained by varying the duration of the observation interval of catalogue data is shown. A gradual decrease in the error in the prediction of the T0 parameter is achieved as we approach the end of the processing interval to the time of the main shock. Although the errors in prediction in the retrospective version are no more than one day, the real evaluation of the accuracy can only be obtained in the practice of real predictions. Meanwhile, we have demonstrated the possibility in principle of the short-term prediction of strong shallow-focus earthquakes in Southern Sakhalin.