Modeling the social obesity epidemic with stochastic networks

Abstract

In this paper we extend a compartmental model to the case of a homogenous network epidemic model for a study of the dynamics of obese populations. The social epidemic network-based approach developed here uses different algorithms and points of views regarding the simulation of the dynamics of the network. First, Monte Carlo simulations for homogeneous networks using a traditional constant probability transition rates and a mean-field-like approach are presented. We show that these networks evolve towards an approximately stationary state, which coincides with the one obtained by the underlying classical compartmental continuous model. A mean-field-like approach is applied in order to reduce the large computation time required when dealing with large contact networks. We also investigate, using homogenous contact networks, the effect of the realistic assumption that the waiting times between subpopulations follow a gamma distribution instead of the traditional exponential distribution. It is concluded that careful attention must be paid to the distributions assumed for the state periods.