Abstract

Calculation of the maximum possible water discharge is one of the most important applied tasks. Its main feature is a high social and economic responsibility. Currently, the regulatory documents apply extrapolation of the empirical curve to the area of rare frequency, taking into account a guarantee correction. This method is quite reliable in terms of security, but not always economically feasible. One of the possible ways to estimate the maximum discharge for the river under study is to use a stochastic model along with a “weather generator” and a physico-mathematical model for the formation of a runoff. The weather generator is a stochastic model that predicts time series of several interconnected meteorological variables based on the statistical characteristics of the values observed at meteorological stations. This paper assesses the maximum possible water discharge for the Northern Dvina river near the city of Velikiy Ustyug and the worst-case scenario of the flood.

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.