Modeling the scenarios of catastrophic flood on the river of the Northern

Abstract

Calculation of the maximum possible water discharge is one of the most important applied tasks. Its main feature is a high social and economic responsibility. Currently, the regulatory documents apply extrapolation of the empirical curve to the area of rare frequency, taking into account a guarantee correction. This method is quite reliable in terms of security, but not always economically feasible. One of the possible ways to estimate the maximum discharge for the river under study is to use a stochastic model along with a “weather generator” and a physico-mathematical model for the formation of a runoff. The weather generator is a stochastic model that predicts time series of several interconnected meteorological variables based on the statistical characteristics of the values observed at meteorological stations. This paper assesses the maximum possible water discharge for the Northern Dvina river near the city of Velikiy Ustyug and the worst-case scenario of the flood.