Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 sublineages XBB and BQ.1 in Mexico, considering multiple vaccinations, booster dose, waning immunity and cross-immunity

Abstract

<abstract><p>In a population with ongoing vaccinations, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in the unvaccinated, vaccinated without boosters, and vaccinated with boosters, which will exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We found that enhancing the use of face masks in a partially vaccinated population is associated with a reduction of new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. We highly recommend the use of a face mask with at least a 50% efficiency, such as improved cloth and surgical face masks, due to its effectivity and cost ratio. Our simulations indicated that there may be two upcoming Omicron waves (in the last months of 2022 and in May 2023). The magnitude of these waves will be 75% and 40% lower than their prior wave. Moreover, the size of these waves is heavily influenced by immunity parameters like waning immunity and cross-immunity protection. Hence, we recommend continuing the use of face masks to decrease transmission because we are not developing sterilizing immunity if we get infected by a prior sublineage, meaning that we can still get infected regardless of the acquired immunity.</p></abstract>