Modeling the risk of livestock depredation by jaguar along the Transamazon highway, Brazil

Abstract

The jaguar is an endangered species in Brazil and one of the major threats is the hunting, sometimes as a result of livestock depredation. Understanding the ecological and anthropogenic factors that favor the predation of livestock by jaguar can help to reduce the number of attacks and thus, decrease cases of hunting in retaliation. We used field data on livestock depredation and environmental and anthropogenic variables to model the risk of depredation by jaguar along the Transamazon highway, a frontier region where ranching has been the main driver of deforestation. We used five algorithms and a final ensemble model in order to obtain a map of depredation risk, as well as to identify the variables related with it. The variables most related with depredation risk were distance to deforestation (negatively related) and cattle density (positively related). The major factors driving livestock depredation are related to anthropogenic disturbance, this means that the spatial distribution of risk is not a stable feature, but is likely to change dynamically following shifts in the deforestation frontier and in the livestock herd. Based on our results, it is reasonable to expect an increase in depredation of livestock in this area. The use of ecological niche modeling to identify potential hotspots of depredation of livestock is a recent innovation that holds potential to guide the allocation of conservation and management efforts over large areas at relatively low costs.